GLOBAL MARKETS
Volatility Returns
The global stock markets did not have a good quarter. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.4%
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved lower by 3.2%. The Nasdaq
composite was lower by 7.0%, while the MSCI All Country World Index fell 3.1%.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 0.05%. U.S. Treasury longer term
rates were seven basis points higher. The ten-year Treasury yield, at 4.3%, was 15
basis points higher at quarter-end versus the prior quarter while the two-year
Treasury yield at 3.8%, rose 32 basis points. The three-month U.S. T-bill, at a yield
of 3.7%, is now 60 basis points lower than the 10-year U.S. Treasury note versus 54
basis points last quarter. The yield curve appears ‘normal’. Thoughts of a recession
at last quarter end were not to be heard, but now there are rumblings of what the
2026 fourth quarter may look like.
The ramp up in precious metals continued into late January hitting an all-time high
for gold just shy of $5600 and silver just shy of $122. Other commodities exhibited
relative strength too. However, the fall in gold was quick but not nearly at the same
magnitude as silver which fell nearly 50% within days of hitting its all-time high
before moving higher. Recall last quarter we questioned whether gold would hit
$5000 and silver $80 during 2026. Apparently, we were too conservative. Oil is the
next area of interest. Already WTI has surpassed $100. Is the next stop $150? That
will cause some real hurt both to the Global economy and inflation.
GDP activity was positive for the quarter, estimated currently at 2.3 percent.
Companies believe they have a resolution to the Tariff question, at least from the
U.S Supreme court, however the administration is slow to refund any tariffs
collected and is actively looking for a ‘work-around’. With the unresolved
question(s) of tariffs, both old (now illegal and very slow to be refunded) and new
tariffs (to be determined), we are concerned about the economic environment in
2026, particularly the second half of the year. The military action in the Mid-Eastas we write is of uncertain duration and effect on both the global economy and
inflation.
During the quarter, the Federal Reserve held overnight interest rates constant. One
rate reduction is still anticipated during 2026, down from two or more just a quarter
or two ago. The current level of inflation remains higher than the Federal Open
Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) desired target of two percent. Significant tariffs, if
maintained (in one form or another) against some or many of our trading partners,
along with the military action in the Mid-East (the stopping of trade route through
the Hormuz Straight particularly for oil and fertilizer food stocks, could be
inflationary. Last quarter we noted the possibility the Supreme Court would rule
against the 2025 tariffs, which they did and it does create considerable turmoil even
if ‘resolved’
. We continue to pay attention to the FOMC’s dilemma to continue on
the path of lower interest rates. Between the ongoing military action in both
Ukraine and the Mid-East and the tariff dilemma(s) there is also some $10 trillion
dollars of US government debt (a third of the entirety) maturing over the balance
of 2026. Rolling over this debt at current interest rates means that our nation will
be spending more servicing that debt than funding the Department of War.
Continued market volatility is still on our calendar for 2026. And you thought it was
over in the first quarter, we don’t think so. While there was one real bout of volatility
this quarter attributable to AI (we mentioned that in last quarter’s letter) and now
the Middle East, there is more to come.
As we continue to note, we are concerned about a global equity market correction
of even more substance and more longevity than occurred in April 2025 or even this
past quarter. While we were in a rather lonely group, we find we have more
company today. U.S equity technology/A.I. related valuations are becoming more
realistic in some cases, although some absurd valuations continue to exist. We are
comforted with the insight we shared in this regard last quarter even if we were too
early in the cycle. Later in 2026, initial public offerings for several companies will be
at mind numbing valuations. Paying forward for a decade or more for anticipated
growth is baffling, nonetheless it will happen.Even as longer-term fixed income rates have gyrated this quarter, the interest rate
spread between investment and non-investment grade securities continues to
trade at historically narrow levels, not reflecting the realities of 2026 and beyond.
Our continuing search for, and investment in, undervalued assets require
considerable patience and a healthy dose of optimism for humanity.
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